MPM simulations of the impact of fast landslides on retaining dams

Possible protection systems against flow-like landslides are earth dams built to stop or deviate the flow. The evaluation of impact forces on the structures is still based on oversimplified empirical approaches, which may lead to a very conservative design, with high costs and environmental impact. Numerical methods able to capture the essential features of the phenomenon can offer a valuable tool to support the design of protection measures. This paper shows the potentialities of the Material Point Method (MPM) in this field. A dry granular flow, modelled with the Mohr-Coulomb model is considered. The landslide is placed in front of the barrier with a prescribed velocity and the impact forces on the slanted face is monitored with time

Quoted Spreads and Trade Imbalance Dynamics in the European Treasury Bond Market

Using high-frequency transaction data for the three largest European markets (France, Germany and Italy), this paper documents the existence of an asymmetric relationship between market liquidity and trading imbalances: when quoted spreads rise (fall) and liquidity falls (increases) buy (sell) orders tend to prevail. Risk-averse market-makers, with inventory-depletion risk being their main concern, tend to quote wider (narrower) spreads when they think bond appreciation is more (less) likely to occur. It is also found that the probability of being in a specific regime is related to observable bond market characteristics, stock market volatility, macroeconomic releases and liquidity management operations of the monetary authorities.liquidity, trading activity, treasury bond market, Europe, commonality

Quoted Spreads and Trade Imbalance Dynamics in the European Treasury Bond Market

Using high-frequency transaction data for the three largest European markets (France, Germany and Italy), this paper documents the existence of an asymmetric relationship between market liquidity and trading imbalances: when quoted spreads rise (fall) and liquidity falls (increases) buy (sell) orders tend to prevail. Risk-averse market-makers, with inventory-depletion risk being their main concern, tend to quote wider (narrower) spreads when they think bond appreciation is more (less) likely to occur. It is also found that the probability of being in a specific regime is related to observable bond market characteristics, stock market volatility, macroeconomic releases and liquidity management operations of the monetary authorities.Liquidity, trading activity, Treasury bond market, Europe, commonality

Mortality study of a cohort of chemical workers producing perfluorinated derivatives and other chemicals

Since 1968 a single factory (Veneto Region, Italy) has been the largest manufacturer of perfluorinated derivates (PF) in UE. Intermediates for pharmaceutical and crop protection chemicals have been also produced. In total 609 subjects have been employed since production began. PF are manufactured by electrochemical fluorination. Higher homologues are no longer produced since 2012. Nowadays, a groundwater pollution of PF is involving the water supplies for a population of about 1 10 000 inhabitants. As a first step for an evaluation of long-term health effects, we conducted a retrospective cohort mortality study on male employees, hired before year 2004, at work for at least one year, followed up until June 2016 (415 subjects), using the regional mortality rates as a reference. High serum levels of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) have been detected since year 2000 covering 121 workers (median PFOA concentration, 1817 ng/g; range, 166 ng/g for nonexposed workers to 5101 ng/g for directly exposed workers). The cohort as a whole (12,449 PYs, 79 deaths) expresses an unexpected over-mortality (SMR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.86– 1.34), mainly due to liver cirrhosis and liver tumours. The subset of employees with a certain exposure to PFOA (plant operator, maintenance and laboratory workers) (2,351 PYs, 22 deaths) shows an higher overall mortality (SMR=1.48 95% CI 0.98–2.33) and a statistically significant excess of deaths from diseases of the circulatory system (infarct; SMR: 7.21; 95% CI: 1.80–28.85) and diabetes (SMR: 6.75; 95% CI: 1.69–26.99). The study suffers from the limited size, and mortality is not an appropriate end-point for some diseases of interest

A SEIR model with time-varying coefficients for analysing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic

In this study, we propose a time-dependent Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States of America, Italy and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several types and grades of actions were adopted by the governments, including travel restrictions, social distancing, or limitation of movement, we want to investigate how these measures can affect the epidemic curve of the infectious population. The parameters of interest for the SEIR model were estimated employing a composite likelihood approach. Moreover, standard errors have been corrected for temporal dependence. The adoption of restrictive measures results in flatten epidemic curves, and the future evolution indicated a decrease in the number of cases

Factors associated with costs of hospitalization of severely mentally Ill patients

Background: Efforts to contain costs associated with general medical care include particular efforts for psychiatric disorders. Hospitalization represents the largest component of costs for psychiatric care and there is growing interest in balancing clinical needs against limiting costs of inpatient psychiatric care of patients with severe mental illnesses. This study aimed to evaluate clinical factors associated with actual costs of inpatient psychiatric care. Method: We evaluated a cohort of 589 hospitalized psychiatric patients with severe mental illnesses at a nonprofit, university-affiliated psychiatric hospital for factors associated with annualized total costs of inpatient care over a three-year period, using bivariate and multivariate analyses. Results: As expected, days-hospitalized was the major determinant of total costs of hospital care. In addition, several clinical and treatment factors also were associated significantly and independently with costs in multivariate modeling. These included presence of psychosis, electroconvulsive treatment, specialist consultations, use of multiple antipsychotics or of clozapine, and being discharged to a supervised living arrangement, but not sex, age, marital status, employment, or substance abuse. Discussion: As expected, costs of psychiatric hospitalization were dominated by per-diem charges, but also influenced by other, potentially modifiable treatment factors generally associated with more severe psychotic illnesses. The study is based on actual costs rather than on insurer-reimbursements and a large study-sample, though at a single institution. Specific factors identified encourage focusing on patient characteristics associated with greater costs and redoubled efforts to apply and improve alternative, cost-effective interventions such as partialhospital and intensive outpatient treatment

Occupational exposure to vinyl chloride and liver diseases

Portal hypertension, liver fibrosis, and angiosarcoma of the liver (ASL) have been reported among workers exposed to vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) since the 1970s. In 2007, the International Agency for Research on Cancer established the association of VCM with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), though only on the basis of the few cases available. Thereafter, recent reports from the United States cohort and a European sub-cohort of vinyl chloride workers provided compelling evidence of a strong association between cumulative VCM exposure and HCC risk. Further areas of research include the risk of liver cancer at lower levels of exposure and different patterns of risk of ASL and HCC with the time since exposure. The evidence of interaction between VCM exposure and other known liver carcinogens such as alcohol and chronic viral infection provides clues for the health surveillance of exposed workers. Notably, also the risk of VCM-associated chronic liver disease is modulated by alcohol consumption, viral infection, and genetic polymorphism. A counter-intuitive finding from cohort studies of exposed workers is the lower mortality from liver cirrhosis with respect to the general population; this can be attributed to the healthy worker effect and to the selection of liver cancer as the cause of death in the presence of concomitant chronic liver disease. Studies designed to overcome these intricacies confirmed an association between cumulative VCM exposure and the risk of liver cirrhosis

Past trends and future prediction of mesothelioma incidence in an industrialized area of Italy, the Veneto Region

Background Malignant Mesothelioma (MM) is so associated with (professional, familial or environmental) asbestos exposure that trends in incidence and mortality parallel, after 30–40 years, the trend in asbestos consumption. In recent decades, the industrialized countries have witnessed a steady growth of pleural MM (MPM), following a stabilization or decline in rates in the countries that first adopted restrictive policies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the temporal variations of pleural MM incidence in the Veneto Region of Italy in the period 1987–2010. Methods We included only MPM with histological or cytological diagnosis. Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models were used to assess the trend in the incidence of MPM in both genders. Future predictions were evaluated by using a Bayesian APC model. Results In the period 1987–2010, 1600 MPMs have occurred. We observe a positive trend in the incidence in the whole period considered. The APC model showed that in both genders the cohort at higher risk is the one born between the years 1940–1945. Future projections indicate that the trend will decrease after the incidence peak of 2010; yet 1234 men are expected to develop a mesothelioma between 2011 and 2026. Among women, the future MPM rates will be stable or slightly decreasing. Conclusions The asbestos ban introduced in Italy in the year 1992 as a prospective result will certainly determine a decreasing incidence. However, the extremely long latency of MPM means that its influence is not yet observable

Relationship between Temperament, Depression, Anxiety, and Hopelessness in Adolescents: A Structural Equation Model

The purpose of this study was to test the validity of affective temperaments for predicting psychiatric morbidity and suicide risk, using a two-factor model to explain the relationships between temperament, anxiety, depression, and hopelessness. We investigated 210 high school students, 103 males and 107 females, 18-19 years old, who were administered self-report questionnaires to assess temperament (TEMPS-A), depression (BDI-II), anxiety (STAI) and hopelessness (BHS). The final structural model had a good fit with the data, with two factors significantly correlated, the first labeled unstable cyclothymic temperament including Dysthymic/Cyclothymic/Anxious temperament, Irritable temperament and Depression, and the second labeled Demoralization including Anxiety (State/Trait) and Hopelessness. Depression, anxiety and hopelessness are in a complex relationship partly mediated by temperament